[Community help needed]Investigating the upgrade rates

[SJS-Hunter]

Hello

First of all, please excuse me if something similar was already started since ep4 update (any statistics made before are worthless, due to the massive changes the upgrade system went through then), a search didn't bring any interesting results.

As the title says, the goal here is to investigate the upgrade rates, and (I hope) decide some long-unanswered questions about them. I was doing this on my own before episode 4, but it needs a lot of trials to give accurate results, and it's rather impossible to do alone.

The protocol is very easy to follow : just download this attached file :

Upgrades-base.zip

It contains an open office spreadsheet (it should work properly on excel too, only basic functions are involved, no macros).
And whenever you try an upgrade, write down the results in the grey cases. Don't change anything to the blue cases, it's where you'll see the results appear.

When you feel you have got accurate enough results or if you are simply fed up with upgrading, mail the sheet back to me so I can concentrate the results and post them back here.
If you wish to start again, then, fill the grey parts with 0es and go.

You can also just write the upgrades results like this 0 1 2 3 4 3 4 5 4 5 6 7 5 ... and send it here or in PM, I have a script to parse these.
Please if you do that, make sure to separate the numbers by spaces only, it's less hand correction for me before I feed my script.

Nobody forces you, it is obviously a lot of work if you only try an upgrade from time to time, but if you are a massive upgrades-addict, it might be worth it, for the good of all of us.

Thank you in advance!

>>>Results at the moment (click me)<<<

(last update : 26.08.12)

Also, if someone wants to suggest me better formulas (some are wrong as I see on the results, but I'm still waiting to find some time to fix them, so... ), feel free to help me.


Discussions:
I'd like some feedback about the relevance of the values. What would you want to see as calculated statistics? I especially wonder about Average penalty. For example, at 4>5 level, I have in record 1 +0 fail, 48 -1 fails and 1 -2 fail, which as a result give an average of -1. The possibility of failing +0 and -2 isn't obvious.
What should I do? Keep it as it is? Add the range of fails? Add the probability of each fail?


Conclusion
I'd like to thank all helpers, keep up the good work!

List of contributors
Ariellee
Bleeder91
Nihilius
CursedSpirit
Dubbelglas
Kahelix
Larker
Sharis
BoobiesOfDoom
iSookie
Lomiko
Kaspa
LordSeru
Gesh
GetBit
iAdam
JoroBG
KillinEye
Olski90
Prebelief
Sami4a
space666
Sziszoka
xSHOcy


Edit - (01.06.11) Fixed the formulas for average penalty.
Edit - (03.06.11) Results updated.
Edit - (21.06.11) Results updated. More than 1000 cores counted!
Edit - (29.06.11) Results updated. More than 1500 cores now.
Edit - (11.07.11) Results updated. Feel free to submit bike upgrades and safeguarded upgrades. If you don't want to check each time how many safeguards disappeared, just add an "unknown fail penalty" column to the spreadsheet. Or simply give me the sequence and tell me when you were using SG. I'll upload an updated spreadsheet for that in a few days if people ask for it, but it seems noone uses this system anyway, so... ^^
Edit - (30.07.11) Results updated. Over 2700 cores! Some results for Average penalty are obviously wrong, I'll recheck the formulas soon.
Edit - (08.09.11) Results updated. Added some precision about how to provide results. We're over 3.7k cores now, 1.6k trials! Thank you all, keep up the good work!
How I wish that my data was here...
Edit - (17.09.11) Added google docs link.
Edit - (19.12.11) Finally updated the whole thing. More than 3k trials and 8k cores! O.O
Edit - (26.08.12) Big update today, 6.5k cores! That makes a total 6k upgrades and 14k cores! Also, added fields for superior cores, now waiting for you guys to fill these.

[Acron]

Virus free btw (info for more concerned about own security).
I'd gladly help, if not for a fact I try to avoid upgrading as much as possible.

[XxXDarknessXxX]

scanned (?)
Ill take a look.

[ZeroLimits]

Reposting ftl but


I guess its the same with upgrading, everything is uncertain in this ****** game.

[ortigas]

i c whats going on, anyway i dont upgrade stuff, learned my lesson long time ago.

[Blackreaper777]

I will try to fill in the cells whenever I will decide to waste some alz.

[SJS-Hunter]

Reposting ftl but


I guess its the same with upgrading, everything is uncertain in this ****** game.

That's why it's more than time we find out the real numbers by ourselves? But it's harder to do for force cores than upgrade cores, and pointless atm since it's due to change in next update.

[Bleeder91]

Any news on this yet? Me's interested. Gonna try to make my normal blade +10 so if you want I can send the results somewhere tomorrow or the next day :P

Reposting ftl but


I guess its the same with upgrading, everything is uncertain in this ****** game.

And I can probably explain why this failed!
Succes rates are rounded numbers. You see 100%, but in fact it can be something between 99,5% and 100% :P So the unlucky fellow just happened to land in the unfortunate 0,5%.
inb4 fake ss

Also this is outdated for the upgrade rates but the force slot rates might still be ok:
http://www.ozohm.free.fr/UCKr/

[SJS-Hunter]

Any news on this yet? Me's interested. Gonna try to make my normal blade +10 so if you want I can send the results somewhere tomorrow or the next day :P

Thanks! You can send the results anywhere, forum pm or mail (dunno if my mail is set up in my profile, gonna check).

And I can probably explain why this failed!
Succes rates are rounded numbers. You see 100%, but in fact it can be something between 99,5% and 100% :P So the unlucky fellow just happened to land in the unfortunate 0,5%.
inb4 fake ss

Also this is outdated for the upgrade rates but the force slot rates might still be ok:
http://www.ozohm.free.fr/UCKr/

Actually force core rates aren't supposed to be rounded, they say 50% +3% per core / upgrade of catalyst, etc. My guess (and many other's) is rather that the announced rates are bugged.

[AsaSempai]

Guess i´ll try to + my helm again since it failed at +13 xd
And i´ll send you the progress later.

[tuomo_fin]

cabal mostly rounds everything downwards (in dmg case) wouldn't be suprising if the actualy rate would havebeen 99%.

[RatzaTM]

cabal mostly rounds everything downwards (in dmg case) wouldn't be suprising if the actualy rate would havebeen 99%.

Either this or the displayed % is an error. Maybe up until +6 it would make sense to leave the ability to upgrade with 100% success rate, but past +6, I think you can't obtain 100%.
It just doesn't make sense to not have any fail chance whatsoever. If I were a dev, I'd cap the rate of +7 and higher to 95%, just like Flee rate was capped before.

About damage rounding, some people reported that my tool shows 1 less attack always, so they might have changed that with the last patches to upwards.

[SJS-Hunter]

Either this or the displayed % is an error. Maybe up until +6 it would make sense to leave the ability to upgrade with 100% success rate, but past +6, I think you can't obtain 100%.
It just doesn't make sense to not have any fail chance whatsoever. If I were a dev, I'd cap the rate of +7 and higher to 95%, just like Flee rate was capped before.

Uh... it was a force core upgrade anyway?

[RatzaTM]

Uh... it was a force core upgrade anyway?

I was talking about general upgrading or enchanting, whether FCH/H/UCH/H .. Developers that allow 100% success chances of something like this to happen in a game, will face later issues. I'm not talking about stuff that SHOULD happen 100% of the time (like XP gain or Quest completion) but talking about success rates of using "consumable items" like crafting materials and upgrading cores.

[SJS-Hunter]

I was talking about general upgrading or enchanting, whether FCH/H/UCH/H .. Developers that allow 100% success chances of something like this to happen in a game, will face later issues. I'm not talking about stuff that SHOULD happen 100% of the time (like XP gain or Quest completion) but talking about success rates of using "consumable items" like crafting materials and upgrading cores.

Well, I guess it's ok that slot extenders have 100% success rate. ^^ But you're right. ^^

[SJS-Hunter]

Bump, changed the way you can submit results.

Also, it seems obvious now that we'll miss data for high levels (but I count on hard core upgraders) and lower levels. I need you, redosm crafters.

[Sharpie]

I would like to help, but I don't upgrade anymore... as someone said before, I learned my lesson

Good luck anyways

[lolzak]

Isnt there a difference between low to highest?

[SJS-Hunter]

Isnt there a difference between low to highest?

I don't think so. Maybe we should investigate that as well, but it's even harder. Maybe later. You can add to the stats the level of the cores if you want, for possible later use...

[swiftowns]

Very nice work, you should check those 2 videos from a guy upgrading osm gs and topaz, i hope u know which i mean

[Nihilius666]

Very nice work, you should check those 2 videos from a guy upgrading osm gs and topaz, i hope u know which i mean

There are plenty videos like that one, you should indeed add these to your sheet...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRg4s...1&feature=fvwp

Anyway, I'll try to send you my attempts once a while, but I'm not upgrading much these days... Luck isn't there to help meh :P

[SJS-Hunter]

There are plenty videos like that one, you should indeed add these to your sheet...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRg4s...1&feature=fvwp

Anyway, I'll try to send you my attempts once a while, but I'm not upgrading much these days... Luck isn't there to help meh :P

Videos already are selected data, as such we can't really know if they are relevant.